A lagging recovery in consumer spending has led economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to cut their economic growth forecasts for the U.S. for 2021 and 2022.
In a to clients note Sunday, a Goldman
team led by Jan Hatzius forecast 2021 growth of 5.6%, down from a previous outlook of 5.7%, and 4% growth in 2022, down from prior expectations of 4.4%. The economists added that the downgrades are mostly offset by upgrades to 2023 and 2024 forecasts,
The researchers cited “a longer-lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services spending” and expectations that the global supply of semiconductors will not improve until next year, along with a likely decrease in fiscal stimulus.
They also expect some spending on services and non-durable goods to remain below pre-pandemic levels into next year, especially if the shift to remote work reduces overall spending.